Overcoming $4744.34 will mean the buying is getting stronger. This could lead to a test of the 50-day MA $4848.61. In my opinion, this is the most important indicator on the chart. The recent price action and the rejection at the 50-day MA means investors aren’t too keen on buying strength or taking out offers. I think they want more control of their entries and exits, which is why I feel they are more likely to buy a value zone like $4495.33 to $4401.84. Additionally, they also have a lean at the 200-day moving average at $4264.85.
The setup is there for buyers. The trend is up if you’re using the 200-day MA as your trend indicator so I think we’re going to see a short-term turnaround in the market. Bullish traders have to start building a position at some point as we approach the 200-day MA. Otherwise, they are going to be forced to chase momentum if there is a strong technical bounce.
What Changes This
Rallies in Spot Gold (XAUUSD) face selling pressure until something breaks in the yield picture. Softer inflation data changes it. A clear signal that cuts are actually coming changes it. Neither one is showing up right now. Until yields start to fall or the U.S. Dollar Index weakens, the path of least resistance stays lower and the value zone at $4,495.33 to $4,401.84 is where I am watching for buyers to step in.
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