Tesla Stock Plunges Over 26% YTD – Is a Recovery Imminent?

Quick overview

Since printing its all-time high in December last year, Tesla stock has declined by more than 32%, marking four consecutive months of sustained downside pressure. This persistent drawdown reflects a clear shift in momentum, raising the question of whether the correction has further to run or if conditions are aligning for a potential rebound.

Tesla Stock Down Over 32% Since December Peak — What Comes Next?

Following four consecutive bearish monthly closes, Tesla (TSLA) has declined by approximately 32.4% from its peak at $498.83, signaling a clear deterioration in higher timeframe momentum. On the monthly chart, the MACD lines have crossed bearishly, while the histogram continues to print lower lows, reinforcing the ongoing downside pressure and confirming a shift toward a corrective phase.

At the same time, the RSI remains in neutral territory, offering no strong directional bias and suggesting that the sell-off is not yet in an oversold condition that would typically precede a high-probability reversal. From a structural standpoint, key Fibonacci support levels now come into focus. Immediate downside support is located around $313, followed by the golden ratio support near $185, which represents the critical level for maintaining Tesla’s long-term bullish structure. As long as price holds above $185, the broader uptrend remains technically intact.

In the nearer term, Tesla faces a strong support confluence between $278 and $299, where the 50-month EMA provides additional dynamic support at approximately $290. This zone, alongside the 0.382 Fibonacci support at $313, represents high-probability areas for a potential bullish reaction. A successful defense of these levels could trigger a rebound, whereas a breakdown would likely accelerate the correction toward deeper retracement levels.

Bearish Downward Channel On The Weekyl Chart

On the weekly chart, Tesla stock moves within a bearish downward channel and has reently dropped below the 50-week-EMA at $382. While the EMAs still display a golden crossover, which leaves the mid-term trend bullishly confirmed, the AMCD histogram ticks bearishly lower and the MACD Lines are bearishly crossed. Simultnaousely, the RSI moves in neutral regions. For now, Tesla could continue its downward trajectory within the channel tor each the major support zone btween $278 and $313. There, it could bounce off bullishly.

Death Cross Ermeges On the Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the EMAs now seem to form a death cross, which confirms the trend bearishly in the short- to medium term. Moreover, the MACD lines are bearishly crossed and the RSI is neutral. Should Tesla bounce bullishly from here, there is 14.3 % upside untul it hits major Fibonacci resistance at $399. Should it drop to its nexct Fib support at $313 from here, it implies roughly 10% downside.

Bullish Bounce at 0.382 Fib Support $313: 22.4% Upside Potential

Should Tesla (TSLA) establish a bullish reaction from the 0.382 Fibonacci support at $313, the stock could advance toward the next Fibonacci resistance, implying approximately 22.4% upside. However, for a full invalidation of the ongoing corrective phase, Tesla must decisively break above the golden ratio resistance at $433, which remains the key structural barrier to restoring a broader bullish trend.

On the 4-hour timeframe, indicators present a mixed technical picture. The EMA structure continues to display a death cross, confirming a bearish short-term trend. At the same time, momentum is beginning to shift: the MACD lines are on the verge of a bullish crossover, while the MACD histogram is trending higher, signaling strengthening upside momentum. Meanwhile, the RSI remains in neutral territory, indicating the absence of extreme conditions and leaving room for further directional expansion.

Taken together, this setup reflects an early-stage recovery attempt within a broader corrective structure, where short-term momentum is improving but has not yet fully overturned the prevailing bearish trend.

Summary & Key Levels

Tesla (TSLA) remains in a broader corrective phase across higher timeframes, with bearish momentum dominating in the short- to mid-term despite the long-term structure still holding above critical support. While signs of stabilization and potential rebound are emerging on lower timeframes, the overall trend has not yet shifted back to bullish.

Key resistance levels to the upside are $399 and the golden ratio at $433, which must be broken to invalidate the correction and confirm renewed bullish continuation. On the downside, immediate support lies at $313, followed by the major support zone between $278 and $299, with the critical golden ratio support at $185 defining the long-term bullish structure.

Konstantin Kaiser

Financial Writer and Market Analyst

Konstantin Kaiser comes from a data science background and has significant experience in quantitative trading. His interest in technology took a notable turn in 2013 when he discovered Bitcoin and was instantly intrigued by the potential of this disruptive technology.