US Greenback, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –AnalysisUSD Web Shorts at a 1 Yr LowEuro Sentiment Comfortable, GBP Susceptible to Pu
US Greenback, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, COT Report –Analysis
- USD Web Shorts at a 1 Yr Low
- Euro Sentiment Comfortable, GBP Susceptible to Pullbacks
- AUD Longs Wanting Stretched
USD Shorts at 1 Yr Lows, Euro Sentiment Comfortable, GBP Susceptible, AUD Longs Stretched – COT Report
Within the newest CFTC information to March 30th, traders have continued to pile into the US Greenback as internet shorts have been lower by a further $2.6bln, taking total brief USD positions to its lowest degree in a 12 months. The adjustments in positioning have been predominantly towards the Euro, which noticed outflows of $2.87bln. As I’ve talked about beforehand, the theme of US exceptionalism is selecting up and is among the many focal factors for my prime Q2 FX commerce concept. That mentioned, with robust US information forward, that is prone to maintain the buck underpinned, notably towards the Euro, which has continued to wrestle from its sluggish vaccine rollout.
One other forex that has garnered consideration is the Japanese Yen, which noticed a extra modest enhance in internet shorts, up $670mln with actual cash accounts the primary reasoning behind the rise. Subsequently, traders now maintain the most important internet brief in JPY since Might 2019. Other than wanting technically stretched on the topside, there may be little or no going for the Japanese Yen on the elemental facet with indices pushing to file highs within the US and Europe (JPY unfavourable) and US financial information additionally surpassing expectations. In flip, whereas rising US yields might have calmed down barely as of late, a strong financial rebound continues to level to greater yields, which has been the primary driving pressure behind the transfer in USDJPY.
The Pound noticed a pick-up in internet longs as soon as extra after a $270mln enhance, whereas adjusted for open curiosity, the forex stays the most important lengthy at 17.9% and as I’ve mentioned beforehand, this makes GBP susceptible to outsized pullbacks. That being mentioned, outsized strikes on the upside in EUR/GBP is prone to be the popular avenue to fade GBP weak spot.
Throughout the commodity currencies, the AUD sentiment improved as internet longs grew by $480mln, whereas NZD and CAD have been comparatively unchanged. Going again to the Aussie, positioning is starting to look barely stretched with a z-score of 1.91, probably paving the way in which for relative NZD outperformance within the brief time period.
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Every day | 4% | 2% | 3% |
| Weekly | -6% | 6% | 0% |
Weekly FX Positioning
Supply: CFTC, DailyFX (Covers as much as March 30th, launched April 2nd)
The Analytical Skills of the COT Report
Methods to Learn the CFTC Report
US Greenback Positioning
Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX
USD/JPY Positioning
Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX
GBP/USD Positioning
Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX
AUD/USD Positioning
Supply: Refinitiv, DailyFX
If you need to obtain the complete COT FX breakdown, contact IG.
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