Nio (NYSE: NIO) inventory stays down by over 35% year-to-date and by near 50% from all-time highs seen in February. The sell-off is pushed by the continued semiconductor scarcity which is limiting manufacturing within the auto business, increased electrical automobile competitors in China, and fears that rising inflation will result in increased rates of interest, which is inflicting buyers to rotate out of extremely valued development shares. Nonetheless, we predict that Nio inventory is probably going bottoming at present ranges of about $33 per share, for a few causes.
The present chip scarcity is probably going solely a transitory issue. Though Nio’s deliveries fell by -2% month over month to 7,102 automobiles in April 2021, with sequential development for May prone to be restricted, Nio not too long ago indicated that the chip scenario might get higher round June or July. Which means supply development ought to choose up over the second half of the 12 months, seemingly enhancing sentiment across the inventory. Nio’s valuation additionally appears to be like far more engaging, with the inventory buying and selling at simply over 10x 2021 income – not unreasonable for an organization that’s projected to greater than double gross sales this 12 months and develop gross sales by one other 60% in 2022, per consensus estimates. Longer-term development might additionally maintain up as Nio is increasing its geographic footprint, indicating that it might start delivering automobiles in Norway from the autumn of 2021. Furthermore, we predict Nio ought to maintain its personal within the Chinese language EV area, regardless of mounting competitors, given its wider product vary versus rivals (Nio at the moment sells the EC6, ES6, ES8 automobiles), distinctive improvements reminiscent of battery swapping, and likewise attributable to its positioning as a way of life model, with an emphasis on high quality customer support.
Whereas automakers and client electronics gamers have been impacted by the semiconductor provide crunch, there are a number of firms which can be benefiting from the scenario. Our theme on Shares That Profit From The Semiconductor Scarcity has extra particulars.
[4/30/2021] Nio’s First Quarter Outcomes
Nio (NYSE: NIO) printed a stronger-than-expected set of Q1 2021 outcomes, beating market expectations on each income development and adjusted earnings, pushed by surging luxurious electrical automobile gross sales and rising margins. Nio delivered a complete of 20,060 automobiles over the quarter, marking a rise of 423% year-over-year, serving to revenues rise 482% to round RMB 8.Zero billion ($1.24 billion). Gross revenue margins had been significantly robust, coming in at 19.5%, up from unfavourable 12% a 12 months in the past, indicating that the corporate is getting higher and extra environment friendly at producing its automobiles. For perspective, the broader world auto business sees gross margins of beneath 10%.
Though Nio had a comparatively stable Q1, the near-term outlook seems muted. Whereas Nio says that it continues to see robust demand, it’s going through manufacturing points on account of the worldwide semiconductor scarcity, which has harm the automotive business significantly badly. Nio says that deliveries for Q2 are projected to face at between 21,000 and 22,000 automobiles, marking a sequential development of nearly 10% on the higher finish. The shortfall in semiconductor provide is being caused by surging demand from the patron electronics business, some production-related points, and the present commerce tensions between the U.S. and China. The auto business, which generally used chips produced utilizing older chip fabrication applied sciences (40nm and 55nm nodes, for instance), has been significantly badly impacted as semiconductor fabs have transitioned to producing newer and higher-value chips for premium client electronics. Now Nio inventory is priced for sturdy development, buying and selling at about 10x 2021 ahead income, and if the provision crunch within the semiconductor market persists by means of this 12 months, holding again supply development, buyers will seemingly re-rate the valuation of the inventory decrease.
See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Examine? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[4/19/2021] What’s Taking place With Chinese language EV Shares?
Chinese language electrical automobile shares had a comparatively robust week, with Nio (NYSE: NIO) declining by about 5%, Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) declining by about 11%, and Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) inventory falling by about 15% over the past 5 buying and selling days. As compared, the S&P 500 gained virtually 1.5% over the past week. The three shares are additionally down by between 30% to 40% year-to-date. So what’s driving the current sell-off? Firstly, buyers are seemingly involved that the worldwide semiconductor scarcity which is weighing within the automotive business might more and more affect Chinese language EV gamers. Secondly, competitors within the Chinese language EV area can also be mounting with giant Chinese language automakers, world auto majors, and upstarts betting large on electrical automobiles in China. For instance, China’s largest carmaker, Geely, is launching a premium electrical automotive model of its personal. Ford additionally not too long ago began taking orders for its all-electric Mustang Mach-E crossover automobile in China. Even client electronics behemoth Xiaomi plans to speculate about $10 billion in growing EVs. With the Shanghai Motor Present slated to start on April 21, we’re prone to see loads of new EVs making their debuts in China. Though the EV market in China is sizable with round 1.Three million automobiles bought in 2020 and gross sales projected to develop by over 50% this 12 months, increased competitors will put stress on the likes of Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto.
See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Examine? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[3/29/2021] Why Have Chinese language EV Shares Declined This 12 months?
U.S. listed Chinese language electrical automobile shares have declined significantly this 12 months. Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV) are down by about 25% year-to-date, whereas Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) is down by near 20%. As compared, the broader NASDAQ index is up by 2% year-to-date. So what’s driving the decline? Whereas excessive development shares, generally, have been impacted on account of rising rates of interest, Chinese language EV gamers are additionally being harm by a few different elements. Firstly, competitors is mounting. For example, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) not too long ago began promoting a domestically made model of its Mannequin Y, whereas China’s largest carmaker, Geely, is launching a premium electrical automotive model of its personal. Secondly, the worldwide chip scarcity has began to hit Chinese language EV majors. Nio will quickly droop the automobile manufacturing exercise at its manufacturing plant in Hefei for 5 working days ranging from March 29 attributable to a scarcity of chips, and it’s seemingly that different gamers can even be impacted. Thirdly, U.S.-listed Chinese language shares are being weighed down by considerations that they could possibly be de-listed from American exchanges, with the SEC starting to overview the monetary audits of abroad firms.
General, itemizing associated considerations apart, we predict that Chinese language EV shares appear to be comparatively good bets at present ranges. The EV market in China is very large, with deliveries in 2020 standing at about 1.Three million items and gross sales projected to develop by over 50% this 12 months. Homegrown manufacturers reminiscent of Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng are higher positioned to learn, given their deeper data of the native markets, favorable regulation, and distinctive improvements focused at Chinese language shoppers. Whereas these firms commerce at excessive multiples, they’ve development on their aspect, with all three firms on observe to not less than double income this 12 months. See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Examine? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[3/19/2021] Nio Inventory A Purchase?
Nio inventory (NYSE: NIO) is down by virtually 25% over the past month, buying and selling at ranges of round $42 per share. The inventory can also be down by about 34% from its all-time highs. So what’s driving the correction? Firstly, there was a broader sell-off in high-growth shares on account of rising rates of interest. Secondly, competitors within the luxurious electrical SUV area in China is growing, with Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) commencing deliveries of a domestically made model of its Mannequin Y. Individually, the worldwide scarcity of semiconductors has additionally harm automotive firms and buyers are seemingly involved that Nio could possibly be impacted.
That mentioned, we predict Nio inventory appears to be like like a comparatively good worth in the meanwhile. Though the inventory nonetheless trades at a seemingly steep 12x projected 2021 revenues, Nio is rising very quick. Gross sales are projected to greater than double this 12 months and to develop by virtually 65% in 2022, per consensus estimates. We expect the corporate ought to proceed to fare properly regardless of rising competitors. The EV market in China is very large, with gross sales in 2020 standing at about 1.Three million items and gross sales are projected to develop by over 50% this 12 months. Nio might have an edge in China, being a homegrown model that gives distinctive improvements reminiscent of battery-as-a-service.
See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Examine? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[3/2/2021] Nio Inventory Updates
Chinese language luxurious electrical automobile maker Nio (NYSE:NIO) printed a combined set of This fall 2020 outcomes on Monday. Whereas the corporate’s loss per American Depositary Share was wider than anticipated at about -$0.14, revenues got here in barely forward of expectations rising 46.7% sequentially to about $1.02 billion, pushed by stronger deliveries of the ES8, ES6, and EC6 automobiles. Nio’s inventory was down by about 5% in pre-market buying and selling on Tuesday, seemingly because of the firm’s lighter-than-expected steering.
Nio expects to ship between 20,000 and 20,500 automobiles in Q1 2021, marking a rise of about 17% on the midpoint from This fall 2020. Contemplating that the corporate has already delivered 7,225 automobiles in January, gross sales over February and March are prone to be barely weaker in comparison with January. Though that is probably attributable to companies remaining shut by means of the Lunar New 12 months pageant interval that came about in early February, it ought to be famous that competitors within the electrical SUV area in China can also be mounting. Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) not too long ago began deliveries of a domestically made model of its Mannequin Y compact SUV. The automobile is comparatively competitively priced and will put stress on luxurious EV gamers reminiscent of Nio. Individually, the corporate has indicated {that a} scarcity in semiconductors and batteries is prone to lower its manufacturing over Q2 2021 to 7,500 automobiles per 30 days, down from 10,000.
See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Examine? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[Updated 2/8/2021] Will Tesla’s Mannequin Y Harm Nio and Li Auto?
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is beginning deliveries of a domestically made model of its Mannequin Y compact SUV in China. Will this affect high-flying Chinese language electrical automobile makers Nio (NYSE: NIO) and Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI) – who makes a speciality of SUVs and have gained a variety of traction within the Chinese language market in current quarters. It appears to be like prefer it. There have been indicators of a slowdown for each EV gamers of their January 2021 supply figures. Deliveries of Li Auto’s Li-One SUV declined by 12% versus December to five,379. Nio, too, noticed supply development in January gradual to three% in comparison with December, when deliveries grew by round 30%. Whereas these tendencies could not solely be tied to Tesla’s entry into the crossover market, Tesla is anticipated to place stress on each firms.
Tesla has been gaining floor in China. It bought over 23,000 domestically made Mannequin Three automobiles in China in December – that’s extra automobiles than the massive three EV startups Nio, Li Auto, and Xpeng put collectively. Now the Mannequin Y is arguably going to be extra common in comparison with the Mannequin 3, contemplating Chinese language buyer’s desire for crossovers and SUVs. Though the Mannequin Y is unlikely to qualify for China’s nationwide subsidy for electrical automobiles, not like the Mannequin Three sedan, Tesla has additionally priced the automobile competitively, beginning at about RMB 339,900 ($52,500). That’s beneath the RMB 353,600 backed beginning value for Nio’s EC6 SUV, and barely forward of the RMB 328,000 backed value for Li Auto’s SUVs. Tesla’s stronger world model picture and software program options might make its automobiles far more engaging to Chinese language prospects. Tesla additionally has the size to tackle these firms within the SUV market. Its Shanghai plant which started operations in late 2019 is prone to produce as a lot as half one million automobiles this 12 months. As compared, Nio is seeking to improve manufacturing capability to about 150,000 items.
Nonetheless, Nio and Li Auto do have some benefits. Charging infrastructure stays restricted in China, therefore Nio is betting large on modular batteries for its EVs that may be swapped out in a matter of minutes, serving to to scale back vary nervousness whereas offering batteries as a service (BaaS) beneath a subscription program. Equally, Li’s focus is on automobiles which have a small gasoline engine that may generate further electrical energy for the battery, decreasing reliance on EV-charging infrastructure. These firms even have the backing of the Chinese language authorities and large tech firms and this might show a bonus not simply from the attitude of understanding the market higher, but in addition from a regulatory standpoint. For instance, Nio’s backers embrace Tencent and Baidu. The corporate has additionally been bailed out by the Chinese language authorities previously.
See our evaluation on Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Examine? for an outline of the monetary and valuation metrics of three main Chinese language EV gamers.
[1/11/2021] Is Nio Worthy Of A $100 Billion Valuation?
Nio (NYSE:NIO) inventory has rallied by over 15% over the past week, amid anticipation forward of the corporate’s annual Nio day occasion that was held on Saturday. Nio’s market cap now stands at a whopping $93 billion- virtually as a lot as Common Motors and Ford mixed. Does Nio warrant such a valuation? The corporate is actually rising quick, with Income poised to double to about $5 billion in 2021 with deliveries rising quick (Nio delivered a document 7,000 vehicles in December). The addressable market can also be rising shortly, contemplating that China – Nio’s residence nation – has set a goal that 25% of automotive gross sales by 2025 have to be new power automobiles that aren’t purely gasoline-driven. That being mentioned, is Nio constructing a aggressive benefit to justify its present valuation and fend off rivals because the market will get extra crowded?
Nio seems to be innovating in two key areas – specifically battery know-how and self-driving software program, and this can be a large a part of the narrative driving the inventory. Nio is betting large on modular batteries for its EVs that may be swapped out in a matter of minutes, serving to to scale back vary nervousness whereas offering batteries as a service (BaaS) beneath a subscription program. Nonetheless, that is unlikely to provide the corporate an edge, as different gamers may also simply replicate this. In reality, China’s EV coverage encourages constructing in battery swapping. EVs priced above RMB300,000 (round $46,000) are granted subsidies provided that they’ve a swapping choice. Nio has additionally unveiled a denser battery pack with 150 kWh of capability (up from 100kWh at the moment). This battery choice will likely be obtainable solely in late 2022 – virtually 2 years out – and it’s potential that different gamers might even have related capability batteries by then, working with mainstream battery cell suppliers reminiscent of CATL.
The corporate spent a great deal of time throughout its Nio Day occasion discussing the self-driving tech on its new sedan due in 2022 and a associated month-to-month subscription program. The main focus seemed to be extra on the {hardware} reminiscent of high-resolution cameras, lidar sensors, and Nvidia processors – all of that are prone to be obtainable to most different automakers. Nonetheless, what actually offers firms an edge in self-driving is the standard of software program and the supply of huge quantities of knowledge (miles pushed) to enhance algorithms. For perspective, Tesla has logged a complete of three billion autonomous miles as of final April whereas Google’s Waymo logged about 20 million miles. It’s not clear how Nio will fare on these counts.
General, whereas Nio is actually rising quick, constructing a model that’s changing into synonymous with luxurious Chinese language EVs, its valuation appears to be like wealthy in our view, as we don’t see a sustainable aggressive benefit but. Nio now trades at about 18.6x consensus 2021 Revenues, which implies that it’s valued equally to expensive Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), whose robust software program and self-driving capabilities partly justify its valuation.
[12/15/2020] Why Has Nio Inventory Been Trending Decrease
Chinese language premium Electrical automobile maker Nio (NYSE:NIO) has seen its inventory decline by virtually 20% over the past two weeks, falling to ranges of round $41 per share regardless of posting a robust supply quantity for the month of November with gross sales greater than doubling year-over-year to five,291 items. Whereas a part of the decline is probably going attributable to some revenue reserving after an over 10x rally this 12 months, Nio’s transfer to lift about $2.65 billion through a sizeable secondary share providing additionally harm the inventory. The providing was priced at about $39 per American depositary shares (ADS), a reduction to the market value of about $42 as of Friday’s shut. That mentioned, this ought to be a web constructive for the corporate within the long-run. The funding nonetheless comes at engaging valuations (Nio trades at a whopping 23x projected 2020 Income, forward of Tesla) and dilution of current shareholders is proscribed. Furthermore, the funds ought to give the corporate a snug money cushion, with the proceeds seemingly for use to fund R&D for brand spanking new automobiles and autonomous driving know-how and to increase the corporate’s gross sales community.
[Updated 11/18/2020] Is Nio Overvalued?
Nio (NYSE:NIO) – the premium Chinese language electrical automobile producer – reported its Q3 2020 outcomes on Tuesday, posting a smaller than anticipated quarterly loss, pushed by document deliveries and better margins. Whereas Revenues rose by 22% sequentially to RMB 4.53 billion (about $667 million), gross margins expanded by about 480 foundation factors to 12.9% pushed by decrease materials value and higher manufacturing effectivity. Nio continues to learn from robust demand and incentives for EVs in China, guiding that it might ship between 16,500 to 17,000 automobiles over This fall. This interprets right into a sequential development of not less than 35%.
See our evaluation Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Examine? which compares the monetary efficiency and valuation of the most important U.S. listed Chinese language electrical automobile gamers.
Regardless of the stronger-than-expected outcomes and This fall steering, we predict Nio inventory appears to be like overvalued. The inventory is up by over 12x year-to-date and trades at about 27x projected 2020 Revenues. As compared, Tesla – a extra mature EV participant, with stable software program capabilities and rising publicity to China – trades at about 13x projected gross sales. Whereas Nio’s development charges are actually increased than Tesla’s, it is usually riskier contemplating the extraordinary competitors within the Chinese language EV market, which has a number of a whole bunch of producers.
[Updated 11/16/2020] As Nio Inventory Continues To Surge, Are Traders Getting Forward Of Themselves?
Nio (NYSE:NIO) – the premium Chinese language EV producer – has seen its inventory soar a whopping 58% over the past month buying and selling at about $45 per share, pushed by robust supply numbers for October and a conducive regulatory atmosphere in China for EVs. After a 12x rally 12 months so far, Nio’s market cap is now increased than Common Motors (NYSE:GM). Whereas Nio is little doubt rising shortly, with Income on observe to double this 12 months, the inventory appears to be like overvalued in our view for a few causes. Firstly, there’s a chance that Tesla might give Nio a run for its cash in its residence turf, because it prepares to launch a domestically made Mannequin Y SUV, which stories point out could possibly be priced cheaper than Nio’s entry-level SUV ES6, which begins at $54okay. Along with a probably cheaper price, Tesla’s stronger model picture and software program options might make its automobiles far more engaging to prospects. The corporate might additionally face challenges additional scaling up manufacturing. For instance, Nio recalled about 5,000 automobiles final 12 months after stories of a number of fires. Nio can also be very richly valued at about 26x projected 2020 Revenues, in comparison with Tesla which trades at about 12x. Whereas Nio’s development charges are actually increased than Tesla’s, the dangers are additionally increased given the extraordinary competitors within the Chinese language EV area the place there are over 400 producers.
[11/3/2020] Sturdy October Deliveries Drive Chinese language EV Shares
The inventory costs of main U.S. listed Chinese language electric-vehicle (EV) producers soared on Monday, as they reported robust deliveries for October. Nio (NYSE:NIO) – one of many largest EV startups in China – noticed its inventory soar by about 9%, because it reported that deliveries in October virtually doubled year-over-year to five,055 automobiles. Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), one other premium EV participant noticed its inventory rise by about 7%, because it delivered about 3,040 automobiles by means of the month, marking a rise of about 230% from a 12 months in the past, pushed primarily by gross sales of its P7 sedan which was launched earlier this 12 months. Nonetheless, deliveries had been barely decrease month-over-month. Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI), an organization that sells EVs that even have a small gasoline engine – mentioned that it delivered 3,692 of its Li ONE SUVs in October, marking a month-over-month improve of about 5%. The corporate started manufacturing solely late final 12 months.
[10/30/2020] How Do Nio, Xpeng, and Li Auto Examine
The Chinese language electrical automobile (EV) area is booming, with China-based producers accounting for over 50% of worldwide EV deliveries. Demand for EVs in China is prone to stay sturdy because the Chinese language authorities needs about 25% of all new vehicles bought within the nation to be electrical by 2025, up from roughly 5% at current. Whereas Tesla is a pacesetter within the Chinese language luxurious EV market pushed by manufacturing at its new Shanghai facility, Nio (NYSE:NIO), Xpeng (NYSE: XPEV), and Li Auto (NASDAQ: LI) – three comparatively younger U.S. listed Chinese language electrical automobile gamers, have additionally been gaining traction. In our evaluation Nio, Xpeng & Li Auto: How Do Chinese language EV Shares Examine? we examine the monetary efficiency and valuation of the most important U.S. listed Chinese language electrical automobile gamers. Components of the evaluation are summarized beneath.
Overview Of Nio, Li Auto & Xpeng’s Enterprise
Nio, which was based in 2014, at the moment presents three premium electrical SUVs, ES8, ES6, and EC6, that are priced beginning at about $50okay. The corporate is engaged on growing self-driving know-how and likewise presents different distinctive improvements reminiscent of Battery as a Service (BaaS) – which permits prospects to subscribe for automotive batteries, moderately than paying for them upfront. Whereas the corporate has scaled up manufacturing, it hasn’t come with out challenges, because it recalled about 5,000 automobiles final 12 months after stories of a number of fires.
Li Auto sells Prolonged-Vary Electrical Autos, that are primarily EVs that even have a small gasoline engine that may generate further electrical energy for the battery. This reduces the necessity for EV-charging infrastructure, which is at the moment restricted in China. The corporate’s hybrid technique seems to be paying off – with its Li ONE SUV, which is priced at about $46,000 – rating because the top-selling SUV within the new power automobile phase in China in September 2020. The brand new power phase contains gasoline cell, electrical, and plug-in hybrid automobiles.
Xpeng produces and sells premium electrical automobiles together with the G3 SUV and the P7 four-door sedan, that are roughly positioned as rivals to Tesla’s Mannequin Y SUV and Mannequin Three sedan, though they’re extra reasonably priced, with the essential model of the G3 beginning at about $22,000 submit subsidies. The G3 SUV was among the many high Three Electrical SUVs by way of gross sales in China in 2019. Whereas the corporate started manufacturing in late 2018, initially through a cope with a longtime automaker, it has began manufacturing at its personal manufacturing facility within the Guangdong province.
How Have The Deliveries, Revenues & Margins Trended
Nio delivered about 21okay automobiles in 2019, up from about 11okay automobiles in 2018. This compares to Xpeng which delivered about 13okay automobiles in 2019 and Li Auto which delivered about 1k automobiles, contemplating that it started manufacturing solely late final 12 months. Whereas Nio’s deliveries this 12 months might strategy about 40okay items, Li Auto and Xpeng are prone to ship round 25okay automobiles with Li Auto seeing the very best development. Over 2019, Nio’s Revenues stood at $1.1 billion, in comparison with about $40 million for Li Auto and $330 million for Xpeng. Nio’s Revenues are prone to develop 95% this 12 months, whereas Xpeng’s Revenues are prone to develop by about 120%. All three firms stay deeply lossmaking as prices associated to R&D and SG&A stay excessive relative to Revenues. Nio’s Web Margins stood at -195% in 2019, Li Auto’s margins stood at about -860% whereas Xpeng’s margins stood at -160%. Nonetheless, margins are seemingly to enhance sharply in 2020, as volumes choose up.
Valuation
Nio’s Market Cap stood at about $37 billion as of October 28, 2020, with its inventory value rising by about 7x year-to-date attributable to surging investor curiosity in EV shares. Li Auto and Xpeng, which had been each listed within the U.S. round August as they appeared to capitalize on surging valuations, have a market cap of about $15 billion and $14 billion, respectively. On a relative foundation, Nio trades at about 15x projected 2020 Revenues, Li Auto trades at about 12x, whereas Xpeng trades at about 20x.
Whereas valuations are actually excessive, buyers are seemingly betting that these firms will proceed to develop within the home market, whereas ultimately enjoying a bigger function within the world EV area leveraging China’s comparatively low-cost manufacturing, and the nation’s ecosystem of battery and auto components suppliers. Of the three firms, Nio is likely to be the safer wager, contemplating its barely longer observe document, increased Revenues, and investments in know-how reminiscent of battery swaps and self-driving. Li Auto additionally appears to be like engaging contemplating its fast development – pushed by the uptake of its hybrid powertrains – and comparatively engaging valuation of about 12x 2020 Revenues.
Electrical automobiles are the way forward for transportation, however choosing the right EV shares might be tough. Investing in Electrical Automobile Part Provider Shares generally is a good various to play the expansion within the EV market.
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