Rhona O’Connell, StoneX Financial Ltd; 13th November 2025
Any views expressed here are of the writer and do not reflect a house view from NASDAQ.
Fresh records in gold and silver (although in real terms silver is nowhere near the record).
Daily October average compared with daily average for the previous twelve months.
Source: LBMA
Source: LBMA
Welcome to our monthly round-up of the LBMA OTC trading volumes in gold, silver, platinum and palladium, as recorded on a daily basis by the Association. These are split into spot, swap/forward, options and LoanLeaseDeposit (LLD) and give a flavour of the markets’ activity and how they were influenced by external forces and news items.
All references to COMEX or NYMEX positioning refer to Managed Money, not commercial positions.
General introduction:
October saw some dramatic shifts in the underlying patterns in the metals markets, silver in particular, while both gold and silver saw rejuvenated demand in the physical markets. The Indian monsoon and harvest were completed, and the Festival Season started.
Diwali ( the festival of Lights) is important in the Hindu calendar as the Diwali day itself is seen as the most auspicious day for gift giving and aided by a good monsoon and good harvest season this year, on top of the fact that gold and silver demand in India in particular had been very quiet for the previous few months by virtue of high rupee prices (as indeed they were in all currencies). The buying this year was particularly frenetic and helped to contribute to the tightness in the silver market, which we will discuss below.
Platinum and palladium spent the first part of the month enjoying continued bargain hunting and some momentum trading, and although the fundamentals of the two metals are not particularly. attractive they do look better than hitherto. With the rolling back of some EV production amid a degree of consumer resistance, but also the energy policies in the United States, which favour fossil fuels, auto companies continue to announce changes, delays or suspension of some EV programmes. This, of course, is supportive for the PGM.
The decline in the dollar was arrested during the month, and this helps to contribute to all four metals prices topping out in mid-month, generating certainly, in the case of gold and silver, much needed corrections.
Gold had continued to make fresh record highs in both real and nominal terms and silver continued to crest new peaks in nominal terms. But in real terms, the $50 silver price posted on the 21st January 1980 actually works out at roughly $215 in 2025 terms. So it is quite clear that silver is nowhere near its real peak. This is not to suggest by any stretch of the imagination that we are expecting silver to go to that level; far from it, but it does illustrate the fact that It is a hybrid metal with 70% of its global fabrication going into the industrial sector.
As far as politics and economics are concerned there was some easing in geopolitical tension in the Middle East with negotiations appearing to make progress with respect to Gaza, while the wrangling in Washington over Medicare in particular meant that the government went into partial shutdown (until mid-November). This has hampered the Fed to an extent when it comes to policy shaping although we do have to bear in mind that there are numerous non-governmental bodies that are able to give some guidance with respect to the CPI, labour conditions, industrial sentiment and so forth.
The majority of the numbers that have been coming out of the States since the start of October and into mid-November do suggest a slowing in the economy, a weakening labour market, but with inflationary forces still lurking in the background. Differences of opinion in the FOMC are becoming increasingly vocal, and we note that in mid-November Fed Governor Raphael Bostic’s announcement of his intention to retire next February when his term comes to a close, did give gold an added boost on the basis of concerns over the likely future independence or otherwise of the Fed. The Supreme Court has started hearings over the legality or otherwise of tariffs under the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act), while the markets continue also to look to the deliberations over the Lisa Cook case, which are set down for January on balance.
To sum up; gold and silver have developed much needed corrections after moving into heavily overbought territory while platinum and palladium have lost some of the froth from their markets and they, too, entered a period of consolidation.
In November silver was confirmed as being entered into the Critical Minerals List. Although this is clearly after October, I am taking the liberty of running through the implications now, while the news is still fresh. Please see the silver section below.
Gold, silver, platinum and palladium, January to early November 2025
The US yield 5Y-30Y curve; interest re-appears in the longer tenors.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
GOLD
- Spot volumes up 26% over the previous 12-month daily average, options up 47%, boosted by heavy turnover early in the month as prices approached $4,400 and then later as gold slipped below $4,000 after topping out at $4,242 on the 20th.
- Spot turnover was at its highest during that attack on the highs and the reversal. Swaps and forwards were comparatively quiet (down 13%) apart from a burst of activity on the first approach to $4,000 , which will have quelled the rally.
- The LLD market turnover was up 10%, with a flurry on the initial attack on $4,000 and then again after the rally went into reverse, with high volumes helping to take prices down from $4,200 to below $4,000.
Gold turnover, October, M ounces
Source: NASDAQ, LBMA
Trading volumes in gold in October key points: –
Spot gold in nominal and real terms (deflator; US CPI)
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold, year-to-date
SILVER
Global identifiable silver inventories stood at 38,432t at the start of this year, according to Metals Focus. On the basis of our estimate for the 2025 market balance they should now be roughly 35,000t.
Silver confirmed as a critical mineral under S. 232; what does this mean?
Silver’s qualifying characteristics lie in its usage in solar, medical and electrical and electronic applications (notably in autos, at the domestic level), in most of which cases it can’t be effectively substituted, although thrifting is a perpetual characteristic where expensive components are involved.
The heavy dislocation in silver inventories and the subsequent massive tightness in London potentially underlines the thinking around S.232. Although there are plentiful above-ground silver inventories, risk managers were not prepared to let them out in case of tariffs/quotas and the silver spread tells the story. Combined LBMA and CME inventories at end-October were 41,260t. Of this roughly 25,000t is in ETPs, giving a theoretical free float of not much more than 1,000t in LBMA vaults.
The London – CME arbitrage did eventually tease metal out of CME, with a drop of 1,629t from end-September to early November, while 1,673t found its way into LBMA as metal came in from more sources than just CME.
Meanwhile retail demand for coins and bars has taken off in both Europe and North America and business is brisk.
Trading patterns
Source: NASDAQ, helping to propel prices higher.
Spot: 32% higher than the 12-month average as metal started to move across the Atlantic. The heavier days were in the first ten days or so, culminating in heavy trading at the start of the final leg of the rally, with prices initially testing $50 on the 10th; the peak was $54.48 on the 17th.
A typical very sharp drop ensued with a drop of `13% in just four days. Spot was quiet but forwards were very heavy (but only up 3% for the month as a whole), suggesting pricing activity and options were also lively, implying activity in the puts. Monthly volume 7% up.
The LLDs were up 12%; here too there was good volume once $50 was cleared for the first time and activity tapered off until burst of action towards month-end as prices dropped through $48.
Gold and silver and their correlation
Exchange Traded Products went into reverse under profit taking, shedding a net 400t over the period, to end the month at a reported 25,371t.
PLATINUM and PALLADIUM
Source: NASDAQ
Platinum, palladium and the ratio, January 2020 to date,
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
At the end of September, the Commerce Department announced that its investigation into the allegation of Russian palladium being imported into the States at a discount is to be delayed. We wrote about this in some detail last month and repeat the exercise below. The update is that the petitioners, Sibanye-Stillwater and the USW requested a delay, due to the complexity of the subject matter. The Department has accepted the request and the deadline for the preliminary investigation is now 29th December; the final determination will be due 75 days thereafter.
Background: – Sibanye-Stillwater and the United Steelworkers filed antidumping and countervailing duty petitions with the Commerce Dept. and the US International Trade Commission, requesting duties on Russian palladium imports.
We have analysed the Russian imports of palladium to the US as recorded by the United Nations and worked out the average per ounce dollar price of those imports on a monthly basis. The differential from spot will not be strictly accurate as we can’t know the exact content of each shipment (ingot vs sponge), but it does give a reasonable gauge.
In bald numbers, monthly average imports in 2024, at 2.76tpm, were 39% higher than in 2023; the first five months of 2025, at 2.83t were up by a further 3%, or by 43% over 2023. Implied prices are less convincing – although as noted above we can’t be certain of the precise mix each time.
The figures show that the average per ounce price on a cif basis was at a discount to spot in nine months of the 27 months recorded here. The weighted average differential is a premium of 3.0%. The month in which the implied discount was at its deepest, at 8.5%, was January of this year with a 2.9t shipment.
The process is for the Commerce Dept to decide whether to investigate or note within 21 days, and the ITC to make a preliminary decision within 45 days. Commerce may then issue preliminary countervailing duties within five months and preliminary anti-dumping within seven months. No doubt they will have access to more detailed numbers than we, but on the basis of what we have here it would seem to suggest that a decision hangs in the balance.
Platinum and palladium both continued the rallies that had started in late September, with both topping out in mid-month. Platinum’s gain was 28%, from $1,355 to $1,734 while palladium put on a massive 43% as momentum traders got involved, rising from $1,140 to $1,663 by which stage it was heavily overbought and at price levels not sustainable given the fundamental background.
Platinum patterns: spot turnover down 11% as participants started to be wary of the price rise. Volumes were concentrated in mid-month, especially in the downward slide from the peak to a test a week later of $1,500, which did manage to provide some support. The derivatives were relatively quiet throughout, with forwards showing some life in mid-month, especially at the end of the rally towards $1,600 (overall volumes down 7%).
Options were off by 23% and LLD by 44% apart form one burst of lie on a single day (22nd) as prices drove below $1,600. Once this was over some of the pressure came off and consolidation around $1,600 ensued.
Palladium spot and forward volumes were up 18% and 7% respectively while options and LLDs were moribund (down 30% and 25%). Spot was busiest at the start of the second week as prices took off after a short steady period based around $1,250; the following action took spot up towards $1,500 in just three days as momentum built. Forwards volumes ballooned at the point and would have contributed to the brief faltering at $1500. The final price surge to the highs was in very thin conditions all round and volumes only picked up towards month-end, in the derivative but not in spot, when prices were finding support at $1,400, finishing at just shy of $1,500.
Platinum implied one-month lease rate, January 2024 -to-date.
Source: Bloomberg, Stonex
Platinum; NYMEX inventories, ounces
Source: Bloomberg, Stonex
Spot platinum, palladium and the spread, January 2020 to date
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Platinum, gold and the ratio
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
ETFs
Platinum reversed the losses of September. Activity was mixed; with twelve days of net creations from a total of 23 trading days for a gain of 3.1t to 98.05 as the daily volumes on the buyside outweighed the volumes of net redemptions. The ytd loss was 2.0t. Palladium was more aggressive, with 15 days of net creations for a monthly increase of 2.7t and a year-to-date gain of 9.2t.
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